Trump could win in 2020?!

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Thomas Frank talks to The Nation's Jon Weiner and explains that Trump could win in 2020:

JON WIENER: You describe Donald Trump as deeply unpopular and as someone who has no clue how to govern. Now Robert Mueller is tightening the noose, the US Attorney in Manhattan has seized Michael Cohen's files, and Stormy Daniels is going to be hard to stop. And yet you think this president could be reelected, that there a clear path for Trump to win in 2020.

THOMAS FRANK: That's right, but first I have a couple of assumptions that you have to grant me. The first is that he doesn't get impeached and removed from office. I think there's good reason to believe that that won't happen. Then he has to avoid a disastrous war. If you give me those, yes, I think he has a really good chance of getting reelected.

Frank reminds us that "Clinton was massively popular towards the end of his administration," and points out that "It wasn't because of NAFTA or the balanced budget or bank deregulation. Those were not particularly popular things. It was because the economy was booming:"

JW: Can Trump actually make it happen? It seems to me that the most likely thing is that Trump will do nothing at all to help the working class.

TF: Trump is a buffoon and a scoundrel and a national embarrassment, but this is something he understands.

[Well, I'm not so sure about that...]

JW: Let's talk about what the Democrats can do to stop him. Of course, we have Robert Mueller, and we have Stormy Daniels. Will Stormy save us?

TF: The period when Bill Clinton was at his most popular was when he was actively being impeached for lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky. You'd think a president having an illicit affair with a porn star would be pretty bad, politically. But I don't know if that's going to hurt Trump at all if the economy is booming.

JW: Okay, what about Mueller saving us?

TF: Every Democrat that I talked to is counting on Mueller to deliver the midterms for them. This has worked for Democrats before. The famous Watergate class in Congress in 1974 was entirely the doing of Richard Nixon and the Watergate scandal, and the Democrats are basically expecting that to happen again. It looks like it will work.

JW: What's wrong with that?

TF: It breeds a kind of passiveness among Democrats where they never have to think about their own message. They may succeed in the coming midterms, but that's a recipe for disaster in the long term.

Frank writes that "the bottom line is this: If the economy booms and wages go up, it's going to be hard to beat Trump in three years." With that spectre looming over our psyches, I'm just going to re-post this:


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This page contains a single entry by cognitivedissident published on April 20, 2018 10:45 AM.

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