new Pew study

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The latest Pew study on "Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes: 1987-2007" shows the political landscape becoming increasingly favorable to Democrats (h/t: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire). The study starts off with a bang, noting "the dramatic shift in party identification that has occurred during the past five years:"

In 2002, the country was equally divided along partisan lines: 43% identified with the Republican Party or leaned to the GOP, while an identical proportion said they were Democrats. Today, half of the public (50%) either identifies as a Democrat or says they lean to the Democratic Party, compared with 35% who align with the GOP. (p. 1)

The younger cohort in the study is both less religious

In Pew surveys since the beginning of 2006, 12% identified themselves as unaffiliated with a religious tradition. That compares with 8% in the Pew values survey in 1987. This change appears to be generational in nature, with each new generation displaying lower levels of religious commitment than the preceding one. (p. 4)

and less socially conservative than their elders,

The survey also finds steady - if slow - declining support for traditional or conservative social values, in such areas as homosexuality and the role of women in society. [...]The decline in social conservatism is being hastened by generational change, as each new age cohort has come into adulthood with less conservative views on the questions than did their predecessors. (p. 32)

both of which bode well for the future. Kevin Drum has an analysis at Washington Monthly, concluding with this:

The GOP isn't dead, and Democratic victories in future years are hardly assured. But there's not much question that Republicans are going to have to find a new schtick. The combination of Grover Norquist and James Dobson had its day, but that day is fading fast. If they want to stay relevant, they're going to need some new ideas.

The summary is here and the full report is here (460KB PDF).


update (10:59pm):
Cenk Uygur writes at HuffPo about "The Republican Party vs. George Bush," making this observation with an eye toward the next election:

This ship isn't going to hold, so the Republicans are soon going to be faced with a decision. Are they going to let Bush take them down with him or are they going to cut their losses? If they choose to keep defending the kind of corruption we see in the US attorneys scandal or the mess in Iraq or the endless subsidies and contracts for politically connected companies at home, there is going to be hell to pay.

If they thought 2006 was bad, wait till they get a load of 2008.

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This page contains a single entry by cognitivedissident published on March 23, 2007 8:49 PM.

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